CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-10-16T12:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-10-16T12:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27320/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen to the NE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is C7.5 class flare starting at 2023-10-16T10:31Z and associated eruption. The flare can be best seen in SDO AIA 131/193, opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171/193, and dimming and post eruptive loops are also seen in SDO AIA 193. Arrival Signature: Characterized by a weak amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching 10nT at 2023-10-20T12:38Z. Subsequent increases were observed in density and temperature. This was followed by a rotation in magnetic field components during which an extended period of negative Bz was observed from around 2023-10-20T17:30Z to 2023-10-21T08:00Z. This arrival signature may be reflective of a weak arrival/glancing blow from CME: 2023-10-16T12:09Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-10-20T07:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-10-19T08:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 720.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 436.560 Acceleration: 1.30777 Duration in seconds: 246837.60 Duration in days: 2.8569166 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.31 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 759.4 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 19/10/2023 Time: 08:42 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 45.02 hour(s)
Difference: 22.80 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-10-18T10:29Z
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